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FOUR SEASONS BREEZE | SEPTEMBER 2022 15 Last August, I put together a seasonal outlook for fall and winter 2021-22. With few exceptions, I could probably use last year's projections for temperature and precipitation and extend them to 2022-2023 as well. Certainly, this is not good news for those hoping for more rain and cooler weather. As I did last year, I turn to the National Climate Prediction Center, where experts look at a number of factors contributing to long range predictions. Again, the most important of these is the tropical and sub-tropical sea surface temperatures, of which El Niño and La Niña are major forces for determining our weather patterns. Last year, a moderate La Niña was in place, and this contributes to less evaporation in the eastern Pacific, hence, less rainfall. Conversely, an El Niño is associated with warmer than normal tropical and sub- tropical water, which in turn drives energy to a more southerly storm track and above-normal precipitation. According to the climate experts, a weak La Niña will be dominant in the fall months, but it is projected to strengthen during the winter months, which is not good news. Figures 1 and 2 show the projected temperature and precipitation probabilities for the fall months. Because of the weak La Niña in the fall, there is a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures, and probably some good news for equal chances of above normal precipitation. For the December-February winter months, with the projected increase in the intensity of the La Niña, there is a 40 to 50 percent chance of above normal temperatures and also a 40 to 50 percent chance of below normal precipitation. This is not good news for the drought conditions currently dominating California. Fig. 4. Precipitation Outlook: Dec 2022-Jan-Feb 2023 Fig. 1. Temperature Outlook: Sep-Oct-Nov 2022 Fig. 2. Precipitation Outlook: Sep-Oct-Nov 2022 Fig. 3. Temperature Outlook: Dec 2022-Jan-Feb 2023 "Understanding the Weather" – A Series by Mel Zeldin, Retired Meteorologist Fall & Winter Weather Outlook

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