30 FOUR SEASONS BREEZE | JULY 2023
The weather for the first half of 2023 has been anything but
normal. The winter produced above average precipitation and colder
than normal temperatures, while the spring months have bounced
back and forth from above normal temperatures to below normal
temperatures. In addition, monsoonal moisture from the tropics,
which typically tends to occur in July and August, produced showers
and thundershowers over the mountains in May.
Given these anomalies, what will the summer months be like? The
National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center looks ahead
to the upcoming months, and their outlooks for temperature and
precipitation are shown below in Figures 1 and 2. Temperature-wise,
the outlook is leaning toward above-normal temperatures, while the
precipitation outlook is rated for "equal chances" of above or below
average precipitation. The latter is interesting because it indicates
that monsoonal thunderstorm activity, while anomalously active
in May, will likely be more typical of a thunderstorm pattern this
summer.
Another thing to watch for is an El Niño condition which generally
produces above-normal precipitation. Current indications are for the
development of El Niño toward the fall months, so while the summer
months may be more normal, the potential for a late fall and winter
active rainy season may be brewing. More details will be provided in
three months when the fall season outlooks are provided.
"Understanding the Weather" – A Series by Mel Zeldin, Retired Meteorologist
Summer Forecast: Walking On Sunshine Or Singin' In The Rain?
Firgure 1. Temperature outlook for summer Figure 2. Precipitation outlook for summer
