16 FOUR SEASONS BREEZE | JANUARY 2024
"Understanding the Weather" – A Series by Mel Zeldin, Retired Meteorologist
With an El Niño situation firmly in place now, statistically there is
a good chance of above-normal precipitation for the winter months.
Experts at the National Climate Prediction Center produce seasonal
forecasts, and their forecasts for precipitation and temperature
outlooks are shown in the figures below.
For Southern California, as shown in Figure 1, precipitation has
a 40 percent to 50 percent chance of being above normal (with the
highest percentages indicated for Florida). Last year, the projections
were for 40 percent to 50 percent below-normal precipitation, and as
we all know, last winter turned out to be quite wet. The last El Niño
occurred in 2015-2016 during which time our area received about 20
percent above-normal rainfall.
And, as shown in Figure 2, below, the projections are indicating
equal chances for above-normal or below-normal temperatures.
Weather Outlook for Winter 2024
Fig. 2. Temperature outlook for winter Fig. 1. Precipitation outlook for winter
