FOUR SEASONS BREEZE | JULY 2024 21
"Understanding the Weather" – A Series by Mel Zeldin, Retired Meteorologist
With much of spring having below-normal temperatures, it is
now time to look ahead to the summer and what we might expect.
Seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are prepared by
the National Climate Prediction Center, and their projections for this
summer across the United States are shown below.
Temperature-wise, as shown in Figure 1, Southern California
is indicated to have a slightly higher likelihood of above-normal
conditions, with the greatest likelihood of warmer weather in the
western states east of California, and in New England. While we
typically experience periods of very hot weather, this projection
would indicate we would not expect such events to be long lasting.
For precipitation, we are in the area of "equal chances," meaning
that we could either have slightly above or slightly below normal
rainfall. During the summer, if we get rain, these are often associated
with thunderstorms that form over the San Bernardino and San
Jacinto mountains and then move over the Pass Area. For the rest of
the country, above-normal rainfall is likely in the southeastern states
and up the eastern seaboard, while the greatest likelihood of below-
normal rainfall is along the Rocky Mountain states and parts of the
midwest.
Summer 2024 Weather Outlook
Fig. 1. Temperature outlook for summer. Fig. 2. Precipitation outlook for summer.
