18 FOUR SEASONS BREEZE | OCTOBER 2024
"Understanding the Weather" – A Series by Mel Zeldin, Retired Meteorologist
With the first half of this past summer having above-normal
temperatures, it is now time to look ahead to the fall and what we
might expect. Seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation
are prepared by the National Climate Prediction Center, and their
projections for this fall across the United States are shown below.
Temperature-wise, as shown in Figure 1, Southern California is
indicated to have about equal chances of above-normal or below-
normal temperatures. Across the United States, projections for
above-normal temperatures are strongest over New Mexico, the
southeastern states, and in New England.
For precipitation, as shown in Figure 2, we are in the area for
slightly below-normal precipitation. This means that the projected
weather patterns are slightly less favorable for storms. Given this
outlook, we will likely have storms as we get later into the fall, but
not an overabundance of rain. For the rest of the country, above
normal rainfall is likely in the Pacific Northwest, New England,
and the Great Lakes states. The other most likely drier regions are
centered over Texas and the south-central portions of the country.
Fall 2024 Weather Outlook
Fig. 1.
Temperature
outlook for
this fall
Fig. 2.
Precipitation
outlook for
this fall
